Confused by figures

JohnM20 replied on 05/03/2017 11:03

Posted on 05/03/2017 11:03

I must start by saying that I am not anti motorhome or anti motorhomer.  If money was no object my choice would be to have both to use depending on the type of holiday I’m going on. Im not that rich but I am a bit confused by some figures and statements from the CMC. 

The CC/CMC have stated that 40% of new members are motorhomers’ but in another statement on FB from a CMC spokesperson they say “A lot of people were not aware that we accept all types of outfits”. If this is so, how can they also claim that before the rebranding 40% of new members are motorhome owners particularly when official industry figures are considered? 

Figures from the NCC state that in Britain there are 550,000 caravans and 205,000 motorhomes. This is a % ratio (in whole numbers) of 73% to 27%.. On this basis, the CC were already attracting more new MH members than the percentage of MH owners nationally. To my mind the reason given for the rebranding does not seem to be based on fact (Fake News??). 

The same NCC figures show that in the 9 years from 2005 to 2014  registrations of new motorhomes (DVLA figures) showed an increase from 8,814 in 2005 to a peak of 11,646 in 2007 after which there was a rapid decline in sales to a low of 6,950 in 2011. This drop is attributed to “economic difficulties in the UK”. Since 2011 there has been a small increase in registrations.and by 2014 it was up to 8,733 but still way below the peak sales of 2007.  No figures are yet available for subsequent years. 

New caravan sales over the same period have shown a continued downward trend from the high in 2007 of 33,350 to a low in 2014 of 18,450 but with a small boost in 2010 to 21,800. Again, figures for subsequent years are not yet available. 

The fall in sales of all types of units after 2007 was believed to be due to economic reasons according to the NCC. If post Brexit predictions are correct then I think we can see this reduction in sales happening again. A quote from a major exhibitor at the recent NEC exhibition was “ it was a very tough week”. This is perhaps indicative that the slump may have already started. Obviously most of those already owning either type of unit will continue to use them but this will not change any percentages of who uses what. 

My personal belief is that if money becomes very tight for many people, it will reduce new  sales of both types of units but it is not rocket science to understand that £20,00 for a caravan is easier to find than £50,000 for a motorhome. 

This is just how I read and interpret the statements and figures. Perhaps someone else can put a different interpretation forward?

 

 

 

replied on 06/03/2017 08:31

Posted on 06/03/2017 08:31

As many of my Cornish colleagues would have said "matter do it?"
 
 It obviously matters that is why people make a choice between the two - because one is better suited to their way of holidaying or storage or maybe because they already have a substantial vehicle available a a tow.

Fisherman replied on 06/03/2017 08:41

Posted on 06/03/2017 08:41

Back to the original post.  "Statistics, statistics and damn lies".

allanandjean replied on 06/03/2017 09:38

Posted on 06/03/2017 09:38

Hi Easy,

The saying is another way of asking why are you worrying about something that either does not matter or you can do nothing about.

I meant this to refer to the many discussion lately of 'this versus that'.

As you said yourself people enjoy being campers and the choice of unit is a very personal thing so, as far as my thoughts or opinions about what others do are concerned,'matter do it'? 

 

replied on 06/03/2017 10:08

Posted on 06/03/2017 10:08

Hi H&J. I agree that the choices others make does not matter. However the reasons and considerations for that choice might be useful to others.

 

SteveDSD replied on 06/03/2017 11:36

Posted on 06/03/2017 11:36

There are a few things here-

1. Basing numbers on new sales alone biases away from all the new members who buy second hand, a lot of first time motorhomers will buy a used van first rather than invest in a brand new van.

2. The downturn in sales probably started with the VAT increase from 17.5% to 20% which is a great deal of money on a £50,000+ investment. The brexit increase in cost and inflation rise will further compound this, along with the uncertainty of potential job losses if the economy slows.

3. A lot of people buy "day" vans that aren't classed as motorhomes, or there are self-build or professional conversions of commercial vans that although classified as motorhome on the V5 document won't be classed as a new motorhome.

Yes, there are more caravanners around on the sites, but over the last few years there certainly has been an increase in motorhomes/camper vans and as the average age of members goes up there will probably be more that move to a motorhome just to save the physical work of a caravan.

 

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