Diesel & petrol alternatives? Your thoughts please

My guess is that most EVs stopping at MSAs will need charging so at peak times when a third of cars are EV a 100  at a MSA is not unreasonable. Just look at the current number of all cars at MSAs, several hundred during the summer I think.

Smoothing peak demand is good but ultimately the power still need to be generated plus each transition into or out of powerbanks has its own additional inefficiencies. 

As the EV saturates the market the generating power and infrastructure needed to supply 30 million plus cars is significant and costly. I know something has to be done to transform away from fossil fuels but am just worried that we are running headlong up a very expensive for us the consumer dead end.

Its just not properly thought through for example EV batteries should be standardised and easily exchanged otherwise used vehicle value will be based on remaining battery capacity/ range. They are selling EVs akin to Mobile phones with unique to the car batteries and a disassembly job to change them, somewhat costlier though.

Is 5-600V DC at 100A safe? Probably safer than Hydrogen I guess. Realistically battery power density also needs to improve by at least a factor of 2 for us towers.

There is history too! Petrol to diesel, diesel to petrol, both to hybrid and now to electric and then what? I just don't want to be conned again!

 

 

Viatorem, it's interesting isn't it, all our thoughts on evs. 

Our EV batteries are expected to last at least 8 years, they are modular and can be recycled to provide more power elsewhere.

We've all been caught out on the diesel/petrol issue. We still run our motorhome, when we fill it with fuel we are knocked back at the cost!

My guess is that most EVs stopping at MSAs will need charging so at peak times when a third of cars are EV a 100  at a MSA is not unreasonable. Just look at the current number of all cars at MSAs, several hundred during the summer I think.

I am not so sure. What proportion of people stoping at an MSA today refill there? Given a driving range of 200+ miles, I would stop at an MSA for a break before my car needs a charge. If I could fill up while there, it would be a bonus, but I might well not wait for a charger just for a top-up. I have driven around 1000 miles in the last month, and charged on public rapid chargers twice - both because I could (was busing doing something else and the opportunity was there), not because I needed to. All of the rest of my charging has been at home, over night. That would have been two visits a fuel station in my V60 and 3 for the XC90.

Smoothing peak demand is good but ultimately the power still need to be generated plus each transition into or out of powerbanks has its own additional inefficiencies. 

Of course - but there is a difference between consuming more peak power, and using over-generation at non peak times. 

As the EV saturates the market the generating power and infrastructure needed to supply 30 million plus cars is significant and costly. I know something has to be done to transform away from fossil fuels but am just worried that we are running headlong up a very expensive for us the consumer dead end.

I disagree, and the National grid concur that power demand is not an issue. That is not to say the charging network is ready for full EV adoption (its not), but lack of power is at the bottom of my list of things to worry about. 

Its just not properly thought through for example EV batteries should be standardised and easily exchanged otherwise used vehicle value will be based on remaining battery capacity/ range.

Why? - We have not had standard engines, or even fuel tanks in cars. Every single component has been bespoke to a manufacturer. This is absolutely no different. Do you get concerned about how much life is left in a petrol car when you buy one? At 50K miles?100K miles? 150K miles? Do you build in the price of the cost of a replacement engine to the cost of the car? No. You recognise its old, and may fail, and pay less for it as a result. Do you worry that if the 1.2 petrol in a fiesta dies that is should be replaceable as a single part for Renault, VW and Toyota?

They are selling EVs akin to Mobile phones with unique to the car batteries and a disassembly job to change them, somewhat costlier though.

And ICE cars are not? How much is a clutch? or a gear box?

Is 5-600V DC at 100A safe? Probably safer than Hydrogen I guess. Realistically battery power density also needs to improve by at least a factor of 2 for us towers.

Most EVs are 400v at 40kW to 250kW. The new generation are 800v at 50kW to 350kW. It's no more dangerous (actually considerably less dangerous) than filling a tank with petrol. There are no toxic or flammable fumes, and you cant spill electricity on your toes. 

There is history too! Petrol to diesel, diesel to petrol, both to hybrid and now to electric and then what? I just don't want to be conned again!

That has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with politics. If you don't want to get conned, don't listen to lobbyists or people with a vested interest in keeping oil revenues flowing or selling you a shiny new thing. Form your own opinion, and act on it. 

Don't listen to me either, I have an EV and am biased!!! :-)

In all fairness when EV’s become the new ICE the lost duty will be heaped on by the Govt of the day regardless of todays costs. Which in the future will totally be on a par with todays ICE. That’s just a fact👍🏻

I'm not arguing for ICE cars just hoping the same mistakes wont be made again! 

I am not so sure. What proportion of people stoping at an MSA today refill there? Given a driving range of 200+ miles, I would stop at an MSA for a break before my car needs a charge. If I could fill up while there, it would be a bonus, but I might well not wait for a charger just for a top-up. I have driven around 1000 miles in the last month, and charged on public rapid chargers twice - both because I could (was busing doing something else and the opportunity was there), not because I needed to. All of the rest of my charging has been at home, over night. That would have been two visits a fuel station in my V60 and 3 for the XC90.

Why would you not stop and not top up on a lengthy motorway journey? I think towing you might. 

 

I disagree, and the National grid concur that power demand is not an issue. That is not to say the charging network is ready for full EV adoption (its not), but lack of power is at the bottom of my list of things to worry about.

 "Electric cars have been forecast to create extra 18GW demand for power in UK at peak times by 2050, according to the National Grid"

It depends which propaganda you read I think, I really don't know which is correct but the 2050 forecast of 36M EV cars probably will use a fair bit. The reason the national grid are not worried is they foresee smart chargers, these downrate your charge current in peak demand times so everyone gets a trickle maybe. 

Why? - We have not had standard engines, or even fuel tanks in cars. Every single component has been bespoke to a manufacturer. This is absolutely no different. Do you get concerned about how much life is left in a petrol car when you buy one? At 50K miles?100K miles? 150K miles? Do you build in the price of the cost of a replacement engine to the cost of the car? No. You recognise its old, and may fail, and pay less for it as a result. Do you worry that if the 1.2 petrol in a fiesta dies that is should be replaceable as a single part for Renault, VW and Toyota?

Why, because we don't need to make the same old mistakes. Peel apart the batteries and with a couple of exceptions they're standard cells just make them compatible, or a handful of variations, after all the ICE equivalent of the battery is Petrol or Diesel

And ICE cars are not? How much is a clutch? or a gear box?

The average Hybrid battery costs £5000 to replace in the uk, I guess a full EV more.

Most EVs are 400v at 40kW to 250kW. The new generation are 800v at 50kW to 350kW. It's no more dangerous (actually considerably less dangerous) than filling a tank with petrol. There are no toxic or flammable fumes, and you cant spill electricity on your toes.

I've worked in a lab with a +/- 400V DC total 800V supply from lead acid batteries, The H&S requirements are stringent because if you touch you don't let go of a DC supply especially if water is involved. 

That has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with politics. If you don't want to get conned, don't listen to lobbyists or people with a vested interest in keeping oil revenues flowing or selling you a shiny new thing. Form your own opinion, and act on it. 

I want a solution to ICE's but I want the correct one for the environment and the consumer. Batteries need rare elements, as do magnets with all that entails. Power and infrastructure will be needed. Politics is involved as are vested interests and it will be expensive. We really need a coherent transport strategy if we want to try to delay the inevitable, I need convincing EVs are not just another repeat phase of grabbing our money to excess.

 

 

I'm not arguing for ICE cars just hoping the same mistakes wont be made again! 

Making better decisions is a good plan :-)

Why would you not stop and not top up on a lengthy motorway journey? I think towing you might. 

Sure - towing a is a case where you may need to stop more frequently (I certainly have done with my caravan). But MSAs serve multiple purposes, - three primary ones that I see used. Fuel, food and loos. Just because you need one, does not mean you need all three. If I were driving anywhere longer than about 2 hours 30, I would likely need a stop for me (not the EV). If I were given the choice of paying say Ionity prices (70p / kWh) or leaving it till I got to my destination  (perhaps 20p / kWh) I wouldn't charge-up. If I needed the range - I would.  

 "Electric cars have been forecast to create extra 18GW demand for power in UK at peak times by 2050, according to the National Grid"

It depends which propaganda you read I think, I really don't know which is correct but the 2050 forecast of 36M EV cars probably will use a fair bit. The reason the national grid are not worried is they foresee smart chargers, these downrate your charge current in peak demand times so everyone gets a trickle maybe. 

Yes - and I agree with the use of both smart chargers for time-shifting from peak rate to off-peak (I already do this by default  - it cheaper) AND V2G systems (which I would love to have and would definitely use) to shave the peak off the demand. 

Why, because we don't need to make the same old mistakes. Peel apart the batteries and with a couple of exceptions they're standard cells just make them compatible, or a handful of variations, after all the ICE equivalent of the battery is Petrol or Diesel

The equivalent to the battery is the fuel tank. The equivalent to petrol of diesel is electricity. As you point out - there are fairly standard cells for some manufacturers. These are formed into packs that are dedicated to the car for different use cases. Is further mandated standardisation either warranted or needed? I would rather see the continued evolution of the technology rather than a nailing down of the formfactor. 

The average Hybrid battery costs £5000 to replace in the uk, I guess a full EV more.

Robbert Llewelyn just had his 2011 Leaf battery replaced for £4000. He has a whole episode of fully charged on it. The replacement was the same physical size and twice the density of the original.

I've worked in a lab with a +/- 400V DC total 800V supply from lead acid batteries, The H&S requirements are stringent because if you touch you don't let go of a DC supply especially if water is involved. 

Indeed - that's why there are no live High voltage components on a charger until the charge has been negotiated with the car, necessitating the cable being locked into the charge port. It's not a lab, the charging technology (cable, protocols and safety requirements) are mature. 

I want a solution to ICE's but I want the correct one for the environment and the consumer. Batteries need rare elements, as do magnets with all that entails. Power and infrastructure will be needed. Politics is involved as are vested interests and it will be expensive. We really need a coherent transport strategy if we want to try to delay the inevitable, I need convincing EVs are not just another repeat phase of grabbing our money to excess.

Me too. So far, EV has been good for me as a consumer (5 years with a PHEV and just under a year with an EV). Batteries need rare earth metals - not rare elements. There is a difference. Catalytic converters and Hydrogen fuel cells need rare elements (Platinum). And while there are very clear impacts to mining these resources to make batteries and magnets, so there are very clear impacts to extracting oil and burning it in ICE engines. 

This is absolutely a political issue - I do agree (I think I said exactly that). We also need a coherent transport strategy that will lay out not just the arbitrary date of end of ICE (2030), but a path to achieve that, with a grown up conversation about charging infrastructure (both rapid and low speed for those who cant home charge), power generation (offshore and onshore wind, and tidal), Tax revenue replacement for fuel duty and VED. IMHO, half of the battle with the move to EV is as you have described - the fear that the consumer is getting somehow conned and it will just cost a fortune to get back to where they were. 

The fact is the future of ICE is dead. We cant keep burning stuff. Until we solve fusion (and maybe not even then) we will have a high demand for electricity, so efficiency of transport will be paramount. That rules out hydrogen. So batteries are the best we have.

 

CT, I think we basically agree about several points, albeit one from an enthusiastic early adopter point of view and the other from a convinced for the need but sceptical of the route viewpoint. I think I will be a later adopter when Batteries give a decent towing range or maybe I'll hang on to my ICE until costs merge.

Today I'vbeen driving a Mercedes. EQA 250 courtesy car, their all electric SUV. I am not impressed, can't see what all the fuss is about ! Instant torque ? Maybe, but it feels gutless compared with my E220 d  estate.. However the build quality (as with all Mercedes cars) is something else.in comparison with a number of other electrics I have looked at - especially Tesla.

Based on this experience It will be a very long time ( if ever at my age) before I would go down that route.

We have just sat through 4 days and 3 nights at home with no electricity following Storm Somebody. Our all electric neighbours with an electric car, electric domestic cooker  and tremdyheat pump all dead in the water have suffered more than we did - as we had diesel in the car, logs in the shed for the two woodburmers, and big red gas cylinders feeding the cooker hob. But it’s the candles every evening which were hopeless so I will get an old fashioned paraffin fired Tilley lamp as well ready for the next time it happens.  Beware relying entirely on electricity. It can die on you.

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